Okulindelwe abalimi baseRussia ngo-2019 kwehlile. Ngokusho kwabahlaziyi, izinkampani ezingu-30% kuphela ezibona amathuba okuthuthukiswa okuhle kwe-agro-industrial complex ngonyaka ozayo - lesi yisibalo esincane seminyaka emine edlule.
Izinkampani ezingaphansi kwengxenye yesithathu zinethemba ngamathemba okuthuthukiswa kwe-agro-industrial complex eRussia ngonyaka ozayo. Abahlaziyi benkampani yokubonisana i-Deloitte bafinyelele kulesi siphetho ocwaningweni oluthi "Ukubuyekezwa Kwemakethe Yezolimo", olulungiselelwe ngoDisemba 2018 (etholakala ku-RBC, inhlolovo yenziwe ngekota yesine).
I-Deloitte yenza ucwaningo olufana nalolu kusukela ngo-2015 ngokusekelwe ocwaningweni lwezinkampani ezisebenza endaweni ye-agro-industrial complex. Ngokwemiphumela yezimpendulo zabaphenduli, abahlaziyi banquma izinkomba zenkomba, ezisukela ku- -1 kuye ku-1, lapho omunye ewumphumela wokuhlola omuhle kakhulu. Siyini isizathu sokuncipha kwethemba phakathi kwabalimi baseRussia futhi siyini isimo samanje enkingeni ye-agro-industrial, i-RBC yaqondwa.
Bambalwa kakhulu abanethemba lokuhle
Isibalo sezinkampani ezinethemba ngekusasa lentuthuko ye-agro-industrial complex ngonyaka ozayo sehlile. Ngokusho kukaDeloitte, phakathi nonyaka, inkomba yenkomba yokuhlola amathuba okuthuthukiswa kwe-agro-industrial complex yehle ngamaphuzu angu-7, yaya ku-0,10 isuka ku-0,17.
"Ngokokuqala ngqa emlandweni wokubhekwa, inani lezinkampani ezinethemba ngamathemba okuthuthukiswa kwe-agro-industrial complex eRussia ngonyaka ozayo liye lehla laya ku-30%," uDmitry Kasatkin, inhloko yamaphrojekthi ocwaningo. embonini ye-Deloitte, ichazelwe i-RBC. Eminyakeni eyedlule, labo ababelindele okuhle babengaphezulu: ngo-2017 (okulindelekile ngo-2018) - 45% yazo zonke izinkampani, futhi ngo-2016 (ngo-2017) - 40%. Iningi labaphendulile alilindele izinguquko: isabelo sabo sikhuphuke ngamaphesenti angu-16 uma kuqhathaniswa nonyaka odlule, saya ku-57%.
Inhlolovo kaDeloitte yangowezi-2018 ibalula izindleko eziphezulu zezinsiza zamandla, ukuntuleka kokusekelwa nguhulumeni nokuxhaswa ngezimali, kanye nokuntuleka kwabasebenzi abaqeqeshiwe njengezinselelo ezinkulu embonini.
Okwenza Abalimi Bacindezeleke
Abahlaziyi be-Deloitte bachaza ukulindela okungenathemba ngo-2019 "ngesisekelo esiphezulu": ngo-2018, inombolo yerekhodi yezinkampani ezihlola isimo samanje kwezolimo lwaseRussia kahle (okungukuthi ngaphezu kwesilinganiso) sabhalwa, kusho uKasatkin. Ekupheleni kwalo nyaka, isibalo sabo sizokhuphuka ngamaphesenti angu-7. futhi izobalelwa ku-85% wabo bonke abaphendulile. Ukuze uqhathanise: ngo-2015, kuphela u-61% wabaphenduli abahlole kahle isimo se-Russian agro-industrial complex. Ngokwezibalo zikaDeloitte, umkhakha ongaphansi oyinhloko mayelana nokukhula kwenzuzo ngo-2018 kuzoba ukufuywa kwezingulube, lapho inzuzo izokhula ngo-2017% uma kuqhathaniswa no-79. Ukukhula kwenzuzo nakho kulindeleke ekukhiqizeni izitshalo. Embonini yezinkukhu, inzuzo izohlala isezingeni lamanje, ukwehla kulindeleke kubakhiqizi bobisi.
Ukuncipha kwethemba phakathi kwabalimi baseRussia "kubukeka njengeqiniso," kusho umhlaziyi weGazprombank uDaria Snitko. Okulindelwe abahlanganyeli bemakethe kuthonywa, ngokombono wakhe, izinto ezimbili. Okokuqala, imboni namanje ayinakho ukucaciseleka ngokuthi luzobukeka kanjani uhlelo olusha lokwesekwa kombuso lwe-agro-industrial complex, okuyisimo esibalulekile sokugqugquzela imboni nokuthuthukisa ukutshalwa kwezimali. Ikakhulukazi, abahlanganyeli bemakethe abaqondi ukuthi kuzokwenzekani ngezibonelelo ngaphansi kohlelo lukahulumeni lwezindleko ezinkulu zokwakhiwa kwama-greenhouse complexes. Isici sesibili ukulindela okungenathemba kwemakethe mayelana nesidingo sabathengi.
Ukulindela okungenathemba kwezinkampani zezolimo kuhlobene kakhulu nesimo somnotho omkhulu, hhayi isimo embonini, kusho u-Vitaly Sheremet, inhloko yesikhungo samakhono e-KPMG ye-agro-industrial complex eRussia. "Umnotho uwonke awunawo amandla kanye nemali, futhi lokhu kufaka ingcindezi kubalimi," uyaphawula. Eminyakeni yamuva nje, iphrofayili yabalimi bezolimo iye yanda, u-Sheremet uphawula: manje abahlanganisi kuphela labo abasebenza ngokuqondile emhlabathini, kodwa futhi “lonke uchungechunge lwabakhiqizi bokudla kusukela ensimini kuya ekhawunteni.” Isimo sihle kubakhiqizi bemikhiqizo eqediwe: ikakhulukazi, ama-confectioners alungele ukukhiqizwa kabili ngo-2024, uveza. Kubalimi bezitshalo bendabuko, lo nyaka ubungcono kakhulu kwezomnotho kunowokugcina, amanothi e-Sheremet. Ngo-2018, ukuvuna okusanhlamvu kwaba amathani ayizigidi ezingu-110, okungaphansi komphumela werekhodi wangonyaka odlule wamathani ayizigidi ezingu-135,4. Ngenxa yalokho, amanani okusanhlamvu akhuphuka: ngokusho kwensiza yokuhlaziya i-ProZerno, kusukela ngoDisemba 14, izindleko zikakolweni zesigaba sesithathu. I-60% ngaphezu kuka-December 2017 (izinkulungwane ezingu-13,2 ngokumelene nama-ruble ayizinkulungwane ezingu-8,3 ngethani ngalinye). Isimo esisekelwe kuhulumeni, lapho umbuso ungagcwalisi izibopho zawo owenziwe ngaphambilini, singase sibe nomthelela omubi kulokho okulindelwe abakhiqizi bezolimo, u-Sheremet uyavuma.
Yini engalungile ngokwesekwa kombuso kubalimi
Ukwesekwa kombuso kungenye yezinto ezintathu eziyinhloko ekuqhudelaneni kwezolimo zaseRussia ezimakethe zomhlaba, abahlanganyeli kuhlolo lwe-Deloitte baphawula. Ngo-2018, abalimi benelise ukuthola uxhaso kunonyaka odlule. Ngokusho kukaDeloitte, ngo-2018 le nkomba ikhule ngo-48% futhi yafinyelela amaphuzu angu-0,24 (futhi nesilinganiso esiphezulu samaphuzu angu-1).
Ngonyaka ozayo ka-2019, uMnyango Wezolimo umemezele inani lokuxhaswa kombuso okudingekayo kubalimi ezingeni lama-ruble ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-302. Manje eRussia kukhona uhlelo lokuthuthukiswa kwe-agro-industrial complex kuze kube ngu-2020. Isidingo "sokubuyekeza indlela yohlelo lukahulumeni lokuthuthukiswa kwezolimo" samenyezelwa ngoJuni yiPhini likaNdunankulu u-Alexei Gordeev, owengamele ezolimo. Kuhlelo olusha lombuso, ikakhulukazi, kuhlelwe ukuguqula izindlela zokuhlinzekwa koxhaso olulodwa kanye noxhaso lokunxephezela ingxenye yezindleko eziqondile, u-Elena Fastova, iPhini leNhloko yoMnyango Wezolimo, umemezele. Izinguquko kufanele ziqondiswe ikakhulukazi ekwandiseni ukuthunyelwa kwemikhiqizo yezolimo emazweni angaphandle. Njengengxenye yomthetho kaMeyi kaMongameli u-Vladimir Putin, ngo-2024 iRussia kufanele ikhulise ukuthunyelwa kwemikhiqizo yezolimo ku-$ 45 billion.
Ukwandiswa kokuthunyelwa kwemikhiqizo yezolimo ku-2018-2024, ngokusho kwezibalo ze-Deloitte, kuzohlinzeka ngenani eliphelele lokukhula kwe-GDP ngenani lama-ruble angu-7,1 trillion. Isamba esengeziwe sokuqoqwa kwentela etholwe ekwandeni kokukhiqizwa nokuthekelisa kwemikhiqizo yezolimo izodlula ama-ruble ayizigidi eziyi-1. Isilinganiso sokukhula kwe-GDP yonyaka ngenxa yokwanda kwempahla ethunyelwa ngaphandle sizofinyelela ku-2024% kuze kube ngu-0,3.
Kuzokwenzekani ngezolimo emhlabeni
Kule minyaka eyishumi ezayo, ezolimo emhlabeni wonke, ngokusho kwedatha ye-Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) ethulwe ocwaningweni, zizokhula kancane kancane. Isilinganiso sokukhula konyaka sizoba ngu-1,5%. Ukwandiswa kwezolimo kuzogxilwa kakhulu emazweni asathuthuka, nokukhula okushesha kakhulu okulindeleke e-Afrika eseningizimu yeSahara naseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia. KuseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia (kuhlanganise neChina, India, Japan kanye neKorea) lapho cishe amaphesenti angama-40 okusanhlamvu emhlabeni (okuhlanganisa cishe u-90% werayisi), cishe amaphesenti angama-40 enyama, ngaphezu kwengxenye kawoyela wemifino kanye cishe nama-70% wezinhlanzi. ziyakhiqizwa..
Esifundeni saseMpumalanga Yurophu nase-Asia Ephakathi, okuhlanganisa iRussia, ukukhiqizwa kwemikhiqizo yezolimo nezinhlanzi kuzokhula ngo-14%. Lesi sifunda sizoqinisa isikhundla saso njengomkhiqizi wekoroyi wesibili ngobukhulu futhi ngo-2027 sizoletha ingxenye yaso ekukhiqizweni komhlaba cishe ku-22%. Ukukhiqizwa kommbila kuzokhula ngo-17%, ubhekilanga kanye ne-rapeseed - ngo-25%.
Isidingo somhlaba wonke semikhiqizo yezolimo sizokhula kancane kancane eminyakeni eyishumi ezayo, abahlaziyi beDeloitte babikezela. Lokhu kubangelwa kakhulu ukuthi ukusetshenziswa emazweni amaningi sekucishe kwafinyelela emazingeni okugcwalisa. Ingxenye engaphezu kwengxenye yokusetshenziswa kwezolimo ivela ezintweni ezinhlanu ezibalulekile: irayisi, ummbila, ukolweni, ubisi nemikhiqizo yobisi, nobhontshisi wesoya. Isidingo sombila, ngaphezu kwesigamu sakhona esokudla kwezilwane kanye nama-biofuels, sizokhula ngesilinganiso esingu-2% ngonyaka. Ukusetshenziswa komhlaba wonke kwemikhiqizo yobisi emisha negayiwe kuzokhula ngo-2,2% kanye no-1,7% minyaka yonke kule minyaka eyishumi ezayo, ngokulandelana.
Umbhali: Elena Sukhorukova.
Imininingwane engaphezulu ku-RBC: https://www.rbc.ru/