Abaningi babheka isimo semakethe njengesivumayo, naphezu kobhubhane lwe-coronavirus futhi ngokwengxenye ngenxa yalo.
Izinkampani zePotash zibheke ukukhulisa isidingo e-Asia phakathi nonyaka ompofu ngonyaka owedlule, kanti abakhiqizi bomanyolo we-phosphate benethemba lokwenyuka kwamanani entengo ngemuva kokuthi isizinda saseChina esifundazweni saseHubei sesiyiyona nto egxile kakhulu kulo bhubhane. Ochwepheshe bayavuma ukuthi unyaka wonke uthembisa ukubuyiswa kwamanani, kodwa uxwayise ngokuthi ukukhula akunakwenzeka ukuba kube okuphawulekayo.
I-Uralkali ilindele ukuthi ukuthengiswa kukamanyolo we-potash emhlabeni wonke kubuyele ezingeni lika-2020 lamathani ayizigidi ezingama-2018-65 ngo-66 ngemuva kokuwela kumathani ayizigidi ezingama-63-64 ngonyaka owedlule, kusho inkampani esitatimendeni sombiko wayo wonyaka we-IFRS. Le nkampani ichaza umbono omuhle ngokutholwa komsebenzi wokuhweba eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia. Ngekota yesine ka-2019, ngenxa yesimo semakethe esinzima, i-Uralkali yehlise amanani okukhiqiza (unyaka wonke ngo-3,5%, kuya kumathani ayizigidi eziyi-11,1). Lokhu kudalwe, phakathi kwezinye izinto, ukungabibikho kwenkontileka yezolwandle yaseShayina engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka, ukusayinwa sekwephuzile kwenkontileka nabathengi baseNdiya kanye nokusetshenziswa okusebenzayo kwe-potassium kuhlu lwezimpahla ezimakethe ezibalulekile.
Imakethe kamanyolo we-phosphate ihlaselwe kakhulu ekwehliseni amanani onyakeni odlule ngenxa yesimo sezulu esingesihle kanye nokwanda kokutholakala kwempahla. UPhosagro uphawula ukuthi amanani ngonyaka odlule ehle kakhulu futhi afinyelela ezindlekweni zabaningi, ngisho nabakhiqizi abadidiyelwe, okwadingeka bamise ingxenye yokukhiqiza kwabo. Kepha kulo nyaka, inkampani ilindele ukuncishiswa kwezimpahla ezivela kwabancintisana nabo eMorocco, e-United States naseChina, kuhlanganiswe nokuthuthukiswa kwesidingo sesizini ezimakethe zaseNtshonalanga.
Ngakho-ke, eChina, isikhungo sokukhiqiza umanyolo we-phosphate sitholakala esifundazweni saseHubei esigcwele ubhubhane, kanti iPhosagro ilindele ukwehla kwempahla evela ezweni ngamathani ayizigidi eziyi-1,5. Amanani ngoJanuwari asevele enyuke ngo-$ 20-50 ngethani ngalinye, kuye ngemakethe yokuthengisa.
I-Eurochem futhi ilindele umphumela omuhle ovela kulesi simo nge-coronavirus ngenxa yamanani aphezulu kamanyolo we-phosphate. Bachaza ukuthi inqwaba ye-potash ayithunyelwa eChina (ngaphansi kuka-2% esakhiweni sokuthengisa), kodwa eNyakatho neLatin America (cishe ama-70%). Inkampani ilinganisela umthamo wayo we-potash ngonyaka ka-2020 ngamathani ayizigidi ezi-2,3.
U-Elena Sakhnova ovela ku-VTB Capital ukholelwa ukuthi ngonyaka odlule awuzange ube mubi kakhulu kubakhiqizi be-potash. Kepha unyaka wawuyinhlekelele ngomanyolo we-phosphate, amanani ehle asuka ku-$400 aya ku-$265 ngethani. Ngo-2020, ilindele ukululama emakethe ye-phosphorus, uma kubhekwa ukuthi cishe u-30-40% womthamo waseChina wawusendaweni yokuvalelwa yedwa ngenxa ye-coronavirus, ngenxa yalokho, ukunikezwa kungancishiswa ngamathani ayizigidi ezi-2. Umthamo owengeziwe we-Moroccan OCP kanye ne-Saudi Maaden uzofaka ingcindezi emananini. Ngakho-ke, ngokusho kuka-Elena Sakhnova, intengo kamanyolo we-phosphate izokhuphukela ku-$ 310 ngethani ngalinye.
Emkhakheni womanyolo we-potash, uchwepheshe ulindele ukuthi isimo sibe sibi kakhulu ngokumelene nesizinda se-coronavirus, ngenxa yokuthi i-China ingasebenzisi imali yayo ekhona (cishe amathani ayizigidi ezi-2) futhi, ngakho-ke, ayiqali izingxoxo ngempahla entsha. “NgoFebhuwari-Mashi yisikhathi esihle kakhulu sokuxoxisana, kodwa kulo nyaka siphuthelwe ngenxa yokwelulwa kwamaholide kaNcibijane. Ngakho-ke ukuqala kwabo kungase kudlulele maphakathi nonyaka, noma kulo nyaka kungase kungenzeki nhlobo izingxoxo,” kusho uchwepheshe. Uyavuma ukuthi isidingo sikamanyolo we-potash ngo-2020 sizokhula ngamathani ayizigidi ezingu-1, sizobe singaphezu kokumbozwa ngamakhono athunyelwe eRussia (amathani ayizigidi ezingu-1,1 e-EuroChem) naseCanada (amathani ayizigidi ezingu-0,2). Ngasikhathi sinye, umthombo we-Kommersant emakethe uhlola kahle amathuba okunikezwa kwe-potash kusuka eRussia kuya eChina.
Ngokusekelwe ezintweni ezivela ku-Kommersant